Everyone's obsessed with the state of the consumer
Mr. Market, Washington, your boyfriend with a pivot table
Everyone’s obsessed with the state of the consumer. Mr. Market, Washington, your boyfriend with a pivot table.
The challenge is that there’s data and there are vibes. There are slick charts but also real emotions. People are tired but everyone is hustling to hit their high-water mark. The state of the consumer is like a grab bag of tricks: you put your hand in and find a sweet piece of good news, then something sour telling you to wait just a minute, and a whole bunch of weird stuff you can’t explain. If you have it all figured out, let me know.
Today’s letter includes a lot of e-commerce data, teenagers are investing in the stock market before they can drive, Hollywood is coming for New Jersey, Chanel partnered with A$AP Rocky, 38% of this year’s Stanford undergraduates are registered as having a disability, Sydney Sweeney can make a stock pop, Walmart is eating Target’s lunch, young people think cash is fake money, and so much more
Wall Street Wants In on the ‘Trump Accounts’ for Babies (WSJ)
If compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world, then giving every kid an investment account on day one has to be the ultimate baby gift. Way better than a hooded towel and I give a lot of hooded towels. In all seriousness, I love this idea and I’m eager to see which bank wins and at what price (because you know there will be a price). Also, it’s hard to overstate how dramatic it is for the Dell family to donate $6.2 b to this new government-run program. A totally unprecedented and baller move that will cement their legacy as one of America’s greatest benefactors.
Black Friday Spending Raises Eyebrows Over US Economy (Newsweek)
According to Adobe Analytics, U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, up 9.1% from last year. It all makes for a good headline but the devil is in the details as order volume fell 1%, prices rose 7%, and BNPL payments were up 8.9% from 2024. AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites soared 805% (agentic shopping tools were fairly nascent last season) which is indicative of a trend here to stay that I’m calling Companion Commerce. Whether it’s an AI agent, a bank, or a live audience of strangers, sooner or later everyone will be shopping with someone. More on this below but I would wait until the end of the season to fully size up the state of the consumer (good luck to all the McKinsey analysts sharpening their pencils).
TikTok Shop Pushes Into Luxury Retail With $11,000 Handbags (Bloomberg)
The early days of TikTok Shop felt like a virtual dollar store, with content creators hawking $10 drugstore face cream and Shein crop tops that disintegrated in the wash. A lot has changed because now people are literally getting their bag, as luxury resellers move mega volume on designer purses and more. Through hours-long live auctions and entertaining hosts that chat in real time with buyers, it looks and feels like the modern evolution of QVC but more fun. At least until you get your next credit card statement.
Top Gun Traders: Stock Bets and Crypto Culture Take Over the Military (WSJ)
What happens inside of niche, tight-knit communities where competition and camaraderie reign supreme? A lot of people buy and trade speculative assets. According to a WSJ analysis of IRS data, eight of the top 25 U.S. zip codes with the highest share of tax returns reporting receiving or disposing of crypto in 2020 were around military bases. While some people subscribe to the Peter Lynch approach of invest in what you know, neither defense nor industrial stocks are mentioned once in this piece. Alas, we’re all living inside a Caesars Palace and the only way to the moon is through.
Meet the Teens Investing in Stocks for Their Future Home and Retirement (WSJ)
When I was 13, I marched my mom to the bank so I could get a checking account and debit card and quickly became obsessed with independence and capitalism. It’s been a hot minute and today’s teens are wading head first into the stock market before they can drive or vote. It says a lot about how accessible investing has become and maybe how elusive the American Dream feels. On the one hand, early exposure can be an amazing education in financial literacy. The shadow side is that it only works if there are real guardrails and actual learning in place.
Abdullah Ahmed, 15, buys stocks through a custodial account and runs an 80-member investing club at his high school in Scarsdale, N.Y….“There’s no way that I’ll be able to make enough money, even as a doctor or lawyer,” says Ahmed. “I don’t want to have to trade my time for money.”
In the Shadow of Jane Street and Citadel Securities, Hudson River Mints Billions (Bloomberg)
Hudson River Trading has been one of the most secretive shops in the game so the fact that they and others are now actively engaging with media is telling. Whether you’re courting employees, LPs, customers, or partners, the era of stay quiet and hope smart people find you is over. Being front-facing matters and it pays to tell your story before someone else (a) does it for you or (b) steals your slice of the market.
1,000 True Fans (The Technium by Kevin Kelly)
If you are building something—a startup, a political campaign, a newsletter, anything de novo—this is worth a read. It was written in 2008 and still relevant which tells me three things. You can build something massive with a small audience, most things we think are new are derivative of something that came before us, and history is the best lesson.
He Is Known for His Taste. Now You Can Buy It. (NYT)
Pour one out for one of the best podcasters, Chris Black of How Long Gone, for announcing his own men’s clothing line. The branding is subtle and it’s a smart price point. The Internet Explorer formula stays winning: go online—>to get offline—>to laugh all the way to the bank.